Bitcoin Halving 2024: What Actually Happened to Price
By Thomas Løvaslokøy — NorwegianSpark SA | Last updated: 2026-04-11
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The Halving: What It Is and Why It Matters
Every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), Bitcoin's block reward is cut in half. This "halving" reduces the rate of new BTC entering circulation. The April 2024 halving dropped rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block — meaning miners now receive half the new Bitcoin for the same computational work.
Historical Pattern
2012 Halving: Price ~$12 → $1,000 within 12 months 2016 Halving: Price ~$650 → $19,000 within 18 months 2020 Halving: Price ~$8,700 → $69,000 within 18 months
Each cycle saw massive gains, but with increasing lag time as the market cap grew.
What Happened After April 2024
The 2024 halving coincided with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US — a demand shock meeting a supply shock. Institutional flows from BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC and others absorbed the reduced miner selling pressure and then some.
The result: Bitcoin reached new all-time highs by late 2024, with the ETF demand from institutional investors providing more consistent buying pressure than previous cycles' retail-driven demand.
The Diminishing Returns Debate
Critics argue each halving has less price impact because: 1. The absolute reduction in new supply is smaller (3.125 BTC vs 6.25 vs 12.5) 2. The market cap is larger, requiring more capital to move price 3. Markets are forward-looking — halvings are known events priced in advance
Proponents argue the ETF era changes the supply/demand dynamics fundamentally — for the first time, regulated institutional demand channels exist that weren't present in prior cycles.
What This Means for 2028
The 2028 halving will reduce rewards to 1.5625 BTC per block. By then, over 96% of all Bitcoin will have been mined. The mining industry will be almost entirely dependent on transaction fees — a structural shift with unknown market implications.
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